Market Snapshot: Election Results

Market Snapshot: Election Results

Our research team put together insights from the latest election results:

• Republican candidate Donald Trump won the popular vote by approximately 4.3 million votes.
• In the presidential election, the largest margins of victory were in the District of Columbia (D), Wyoming (R), West Virginia (R), North Dakota (R), and Indiana (R).
• The closest races for president ended up being in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. Next was New Hampshire, which ended up having a closer race than two tossup states (North Carolina and Nevada). Arizona, one of the battleground states, went from a Democratic win in 2020 to a nearly 6% Republican victory.
• Out of the 11 states with the fastest population growth between 2020 and 2023*, the 10 voted Republican in this presidential election. Only one state leaned Democratic (Delaware). Among those same 11 states, two had Democratic wins in their latest U.S. Senate election (Delaware and Arizona). These same states, joined by North Carolina, were also the only ones to have a Democratic win in their latest gubernatorial elections.
• The largest margins of victory in the Senate elections were in Wyoming (R), West Virginia (R), North Dakota (R), Hawaii (D), and Vermont (Ind.).
• Ahead of the Senate elections, Ohio was considered the only tossup state. However, the tightest races for Senate seats ended up being in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona, all originally Democratic leaning. Of those, only Pennsylvania has had a race called for the Republican candidate. 
• Elections for the U.S. House of Representatives had 15 districts considered tossups. Eight ended up with Republican victories, and seven had Democratic wins. Three Democratic-leaning districts turned Republican (California 47^th, Nebraska 2^nd, and Pennsylvania 7^th).
• For gubernatorial elections, New Hampshire was the only one to be considered a tossup and ended up with a Republican victory.

*Fastest-growing states are based on a compound annual growth rate between 2020 and 2023 of 1% or higher. Includes the following 11 states: Idaho, South Carolina, Florida, Texas, Montana, Utah, Delaware, Arizona, North Carolina, South Dakota, and Tennessee.

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