6 Ways to Lead Through the Fog of Uncertainty

6 Ways to Lead Through the Fog of Uncertainty

Congratulations. You’re in charge during one of the stranger stretches in recent memory, the pandemic notwithstanding. If you’ve had that sensation lately—that the floor keeps shifting just a bit under your feet—you’re not alone. We are, collectively, living in a moment defined by ambiguity. Political polarization. Regulatory volatility. Unpredictable funding streams. Environmental disruption. Talent movement. Economic wobble. You name it, it’s got a question mark hanging off the end of it.

And yet here you are, steering your firm through the murk, making decisions with less-than-perfect information. Juggling growth aspirations, project schedules, and client expectations, all while the world resists settling down into anything resembling “normal.”

But here’s the truth: Nothing was ever certain. Not really. The current climate just makes it harder to pretend otherwise.

A Little Reality Check

Let’s start with some blunt perspective: Tomorrow is a promise to no one. Leading an AE firm never came with a money-back guarantee. That rock-solid, two-year backlog could be derailed by a single policy memo or a natural disaster on the other side of the country. Supply chains snarl. Governments change their minds.

None of this is meant to be pessimistic. In fact, it’s quite the opposite: This is your reminder that uncertainty is not the enemy—it’s simply the playing field.

As a leader, your job is not to eliminate uncertainty. (Spoiler: You can’t.) Your job is to guide your firm through it—to steady the ship, adjust the sails, and keep an eye on the horizon, even when the fog rolls in.

Concerns With New Wrapping Paper

Of course, there are fresh reasons to feel uneasy. Some of the concerns you’re navigating hadn’t surfaced in decades. Inflation, for example, continues to make budget forecasting feel more like dart-throwing at times.

Political shifts have created swings in infrastructure funding, permitting regulations, and energy policy. Clients—particularly those in public sectors—are pausing or pivoting, depending on the day.

And let’s not forget the environment. Whether you believe in climate change, catastrophic weather events are no longer a future scenario—they’re showing up in your project schedules. Fires, floods, and hurricanes don’t care what phase your site is in. They’ll cancel concrete pours without apology.

In short, you’re not just managing your firm anymore. You’re managing volatility itself.

So, How Do You Lead Through All of That—and More?

1. Ditch the fantasy of perfect clarity

Let’s be honest: AE leaders like order. But waiting for certainty before acting is a fool’s errand. If you’re sitting on a decision because “we just need to wait for things to settle,” I’ve got news: Things may not settle.

Make the best call you can with what you know. Leave room for course correction. Create feedback loops. Progress, not perfection, is your friend.

(And no, your spreadsheet with 18 tabs isn’t going to tell you the future. But we both know you’re going to open it anyway.)

2. Plan for scenarios, not predictions

Stop treating your strategic plan like it’s been carved into stone tablets. Instead, treat it like a set of hypotheses. Scenario planning allows you to ask: What if funding dries up? What if interest rates spike again? What if we lose a key rainmaker?

When you game out a few plausible futures, you loosen your grip on any single one. You create agility in your thinking—and your firm. And when the curveball comes (it always does), you won’t be caught flat-footed.

3. Use culture as your compass

When the external environment feels shaky, your internal environment matters more. In times of ambiguity, people look to culture for clues: What do we value? How do we behave under stress?

Your team isn’t asking you to predict the future. They’re asking if they can trust you when it shows up. And you can’t delegate that. Whether you like it or not, your steadiness—or lack of it—gets mimicked across the organization.

Keep your culture tight. Double down on transparency. Communicate what you know and what you don’t. (It’s okay to admit to not knowing—just pair it with a plan.)

4. Balance your risk portfolio

Firms that thrive in turbulence aren’t the ones who hunker down and hide. They’re the ones who diversify smartly.

Are you over-concentrated in one client, one market, or one region? Time to rebalance. Consider offsetting volatility in public work with more private clients—or vice versa. Look for recession-resistant sectors. Invest in your backlog, sure—but also in relationships and brand equity.

If you’re going to make a bet, make sure it doesn’t sink the ship if it doesn’t pay off.

This approach doesn’t mean playing scared. It means being deliberately gutsy, not blindly aggressive.

5. Invest in adaptability, not just strategy 

Here’s a wild idea: Your strategic advantage might not be in your plan at all—but how fast you adapt when the plan breaks.

Build systems that can flex. Cross-train your teams. Automate the boring stuff so you can focus on the meaningful work. Get your PMs and designers to talk to each other like they’re on the same team (because they are). Build a culture where change isn’t feared—it’s expected.

In other words, design your firm like it’s going to live in a world where the plan is never final. Because it won’t be.

6. Guard your attention like a national treasure 

When everything feels uncertain, everything can feel urgent. But if you react to everything, you lead nothing.

It’s tempting to obsess over every headline, every whisper of market movement, every news alert. Don’t. Your team needs you focused on what matters: your people, the firm’s culture, the firm’s clients, and long-term value.

Yes, stay informed. But don’t become a panic sponge. Panic is contagious—and so is calm.

The Opportunity Within Uncertainty

If the ground were stable and the skies were always clear, any firm could grow. Everyone would know the playbook. But uncertainty? It filters out the average. It rewards the resilient. It sharpens leadership. It favors those who don’t just brace for the storm—but learn to surf it.

This is your moment to build something durable. Not because the conditions are certain, but because they’re not.

Lead your people. Adjust the sails. And remind yourself that thriving isn’t about having all the answers—it’s about continuing to move forward even when you don’t.

Contact Mark Goodale at 508.254.3914 or [email protected].